18Birdies archive · May 2024 – July 2026 · deep analysis
The insight dashboard
93 solo rounds · 3,252 GPS shots · 197 greens mapped from your own shot clusters · benchmarked against Shot Scope handicap data
−15.6
strokes/18: first 10 rounds vs last 10
4.4
disaster holes (7+) per 18 — the big leak
19y
median leave from 75–100y — your best scoring zone
235y
median drive — 18y past the 25-hcp average
You vs. the handicap ladder
Your two-year numbers against Shot Scope's published averages. The profile is lopsided — and that's good news, because lopsided is fixable.
You drive it past the 15-handicap average — but hit fairways below every bracket (35%) and putt slightly worse than a 25. The scorecard damage comes from a small number of blow-up holes, not from a uniformly weak game.
The approach ladder — how close each distance actually gets you
1,669 GPS approach shots, bucketed by starting distance. Each box shows how far from the flag your ball finishes (middle 50% of shots; the line is the median). No on/off-green judgment involved — the export doesn't say what surface the ball sat on, so this measures the thing that matters anyway: where the next shot starts. True GIR (from the app's own tracking): 18%.
The cliff is at 200 yards. From 175–200 the median leave is 36y; from 200+ it triples to 89y — a quarter of those shots finish 123y+ away, i.e. barely closer than where they started. Meanwhile 75–100y leaves a 19y median. On par 5s and unreachable par 4s, the lay-up to your wedge number isn't conservative — it's just better.
Anatomy of the scores
Every hole you've played, by strokes
The most common score on a hole is 6. Scores of 7+ (red) are 20% of all holes but drive the majority of the gap to your target scores.
Disaster holes decide the round
Rounds with ≤1 disaster hole: avg +22.1 (9 rounds). Rounds with 3+: avg +35.5 (68 rounds). That's a 13-stroke swing on the same swing skills. Disasters are trending down: 4.8/18 early → 3.8/18 lately.
Driving: distance is a weapon, direction is a coin flip
535 drives measured against the tee-to-green target line. Only 35% finish within 20y of the line; misses split 47% left / 43% right — a true two-way miss, so there's no single-fix alignment tweak. Median drive 235y (top quarter 259y+).
Scoring by hole type (par estimated from GPS hole length)
Par 5s are your worst holes relative to par (+2.29) — consistent with the 200+ yard go-for-it data above. Par 3s are closest to bracket. Front 9 (52.1) and back 9 (52.7) are statistically identical — no fitness/focus fade.
Scoring trend & where it's happening
18-hole9-hole (×2)10-round avg
By course
Putting
Median 38 putts/18 vs 37.0 for a 25-hcp and 36.1 for a 20-hcp. It's a small leak (~1–2 strokes vs bracket) — real, but an order of magnitude smaller than the long-game gap (18Birdies strokes-gained: tee-to-green −26.5 vs putting −6.2 per 18). Lag-putt drills to kill three-putts; don't spend range time here yet.
Club reality check
Median 7-iron = 133y, 8-iron = 138y, 9-iron = 116y — the overlap means strike quality, not loft, sets your distance. Until the gaps separate, the "one more club" rule stays on.
The prescription, updated
1Cap the disasters at 2 per round. Your own data: that alone is the difference between +35 and +22 golf. After any tee ball in trouble, the next shot's only job is back to the fairway — never through trees, never over water.
2Lay up to 75–100 yards. Always. From 200+: 3% greens, median leave 89y. From 75–100: 42% greens, median leave 19y. The math isn't close — on every par 5 and unreachable par 4, play to your wedge number.
3One more club on approaches, center of green. Short misses beat long misses 2.1:1 and your iron medians overlap from mishits. The extra club turns thin strikes into green-high misses.
4Driver only when the fairway is wide. With a 47/43 two-way miss and 235y of pop, a 5-wood (median 186y) into position beats a driver into trouble on tight holes — a disaster-prevention play, not a distance sacrifice.