18Birdies archive · deep analysis · interactive

The insight dashboard

93 solo rounds · 3,043 GPS swings · every chart below recomputes for the years you select

Years

How the game changed, year by year

The whole story in one table (all years, unaffected by the filter). Scoring collapsed because the blow-ups collapsed — birdie/par rates barely moved.

You vs. the handicap ladder

Selected years vs Shot Scope's published averages by handicap.

Putting recovered per-hole data

From the app's own per-hole records — 43 of ~104 rounds recovered so far (2025–26). More rounds appear here automatically as they're recovered. A 3-putt = 3+ putts on a hole.

Putts-per-hole distribution

How many holes ended in 1, 2, 3+ putts (holes with a recorded putt count).

3-putt odds by first-putt length

Based on holes with complete recovered putt chains (n shown), first-putt length from the app's own stroke GPS. The app clamps/quantizes long first putts at ~50 ft, so the 40–60 ft buckets are approximate.

Penalties recovered per-hole data

From the app's own per-hole records — 43 of ~104 rounds recovered so far (2025–26). More rounds appear here automatically as they're recovered.

Penalties by round

Per-round penalty strokes. The 07-03 round genuinely carried 11.

Round by round

Round quality & strokes gained recovered per-stroke data

Every shot of 43 recovered rounds, stroke by stroke. The same iPad archives that gave up putts & penalties also carry the app's full per-stroke record — club, lie, distance to the hole, and 18Birdies' own strokes-gained number for every swing — plus per-hole GIR, fairway, chip and sand-shot flags the export never had. Coverage grows automatically as more rounds are recovered. Reading the strokes-gained bars: the baseline is 18Birdies' expectation for a golfer at your level — rounds in this recovered set average ~101 strokes per 18, and the baseline prices that (a 355-yard par 4 baselines at ~6.0 strokes, not a tour 4.0) — so a positive bar means that part of your game beats your peer group, negative means it lags it. It does not compare you to scratch. About a quarter of holes are missing a stroke or two from the log (penalties mostly), so totals are indicative, not bankable.

Strokes gained by part of the game

Mean strokes gained per 18 holes, vs your peer baseline. This is where the strokes actually come from. Excludes penalty strokes (−4.9/18 — see the Penalties section); all-in vs the peer baseline ≈ −6.9/18.

GIR & fairways, round by round

Per-round greens in regulation (green) and fairways hit (tan), with 5-round averages drawn heavy.

GIR % Fairways %

Approach results by real lie

Approach- and pitch-range shots (the app's own categories), split by the lie tag it recorded at the ball — this is ground truth and supersedes the OSM-polygon lie recovery above, which inferred lies from map geometry. Fairway and rough attempts come from near-identical distances (both ~127y median), so the comparison is apples-to-apples. Strokes gained here is per shot, vs the lie-aware peer baseline: it measures how well you execute from that lie relative to expectation — the difficulty of the lie itself is already priced into the baseline.

Approach by club & distance recovered per-stroke data

Every recovered approach and pitch shot, split 25 yards at a time by the club that hit it — because "125–175" is not one shot: 125 is a ¾ PW, 175 a full 7-iron. Cells show mean strokes gained per shot vs the peer baseline (green = beating it, red = losing to it) on 8+ shots. The reads as of today: the 8-iron is the big leak from 125–150 and the 6-iron from 150–175, while the 7-iron is holding its own; the PW loses strokes from 125–150; and in the 75–125 overlap the 50° is outscoring the PW. These cells update automatically as more rounds are recovered. Single-digit clubs pool the iron/hybrid/wood carrying that number. "SG /18" = what that distance band costs or gains per 18 holes in total.

Approach school — your real odds by distance

Green-hit rate on genuine attempts (club could reach; par-5 layups and punch-outs excluded). A "hit" now means the ball finished on the green per the OSM green polygon — so every logged approach counts, not just holes where the whole putt sequence was logged (that older method quietly dropped most recent rounds, since putts are typed in now, not GPS-logged). Context so the odds land right: the distance where you convert half your attempts is about 75 yards. For a 20-handicap it's ~92y; for a 10-handicap ~129y (Arccos data). Honesty note: the green center comes from the mapped polygon (good to a few yards), but mid-iron buckets can still be thin in a single year — watch the shot counts under each bar, and treat direction (odds fall off past 125y) as solid, exact numbers as softer.

Where the ball actually goes — 25-yard target plots

Each card is a green seen from above, drawn to scale (shaded disc = 15-yard radius green). The flag marks the green's estimated CENTER — the actual day's pin isn't in the data, so "long/short" means past or shy of the middle of the green. Day-to-day pin positions scatter evenly front and back, so they blur individual dots but can't fake a one-sided pattern over 100+ shots (and your own tap-in stats agree: 425 misses short vs 202 long). Treat differences under ~10y as noise.

Your miss is short, not sideways. Median left/right bias is under 3 yards from every distance inside 175 (the 175–200 bucket drifts a few yards right, but on only ~80 shots) — while from 100+ you're typically 7–12 yards short, and roughly three-quarters of your misses from 150–175 are short. One more club and a smooth swing moves the whole dot-cloud up onto the disc.

Greens hit by club × distance

Every genuine approach attempt, split by the club in hand; cells show how often the ball finished on the green (OSM polygon). Blank = fewer than 5 attempts. This is the "which club do I actually trust" table.

NEW — What lie were you really in? OSM lie layer

The 18Birdies export never included lie or surface. These four panels recover it by testing every GPS point against the real course geometry (fairway, green, bunker and water polygons) that OpenStreetMap has mapped for 9 of your 10 most-played courses. A call counts as confident only when the ball sits clearly inside a surface (beyond GPS error of a boundary); boundary-zone balls are shown as "edge" and kept out of headline rates. Unmapped courses (Compass Pointe + some one-offs) are excluded. Data caveat: every shot is logged in the app, but the export silently drops ~38% of swings — mostly whole holes at a time (the holes present are 93% complete chains), and the vanished holes average slightly better scores, so rates here skew a touch pessimistic if anything. The app's own stats remain ground truth for overall rates; the value here is conditional: what happens given the lie.

1 · Approach results by starting lie

Genuine green attempts only (club-can-reach). Does the rough — not just under-clubbing — explain the short miss?

2 · Where tee shots actually finish, by club

First logged shot on par-4/5 holes (par from OSM where mapped, else long openers). The app gives one fairway number per round — this splits it by the club in your hand. "Edge" = within GPS error of a boundary, could be either side.

3 · The water bill

Logged shots that finished in (or flew over) mapped water. Penalties aren't in the export, so this is a floor, not a total — and "crossed" includes safe carries over hazards.

4 · Two methods, one truth — green hits

The dashboard's "sequence method" infers a green hit from stroke arithmetic; the polygon method reads the map. Where both speak, do they agree?

Tee shot distances by club recovered per-stroke data

Every tee shot in the 43 recovered rounds, measured GPS point-to-point from the tee to where the next shot was played — so distances include roll, and a ball hit into a penalty area measures to the drop spot, not the splash. Lost-ball re-tees (measuring ~0y) are excluded. Curves are smoothed distance distributions for clubs with 8+ tee shots; thinner samples appear in the table only — n is shown for every club. Ticks on the baseline mark each club's median.

Tee-shot dispersion — pick a club

Every logged opening shot on a par 4/5, plotted against the hole's playing centerline — the tee→bend(s)→green route from OpenStreetMap's mapped hole lines where available (247 holes, doglegs included), or built from the fairway shapes (straight for par 3 length, one bend for par 4s, up to two for par 5s) where not. "Left/right" means of your intended starting line (the first leg), not straight at the green, so doglegs no longer read as misses. The stats card includes what the club leaves you into the green, measured along the route — distance is half the question; the other half is whether the leave sits in your make-rate sweet spot (see "Approach school" above). Dot colour is miss severity: yards from the ball to the nearest mapped fairway edge (green = finished in a fairway, tan→red = further from one). Measured on OSM-fairway-mapped courses only (21 of 26 courses; grey dots = unmapped course).

What each hole leaves you — tee club & approach distance

Par 4s and 5s you've played enough to pattern (3+ logged tee shots, selected years). Median leave = your typical approach distance into that green after the tee ball. Holes where the leave lands in the 125–175y dead zone (your 8–16% make range) are flagged — those are the holes where a different tee club or a deliberate layup spot could buy strokes. (Courses where OSM lacks hole/par data show "—" for par and can include the odd long par-3 — iron rows with tiny leaves are those.)

Where to practice — approach priorities

Practice pays where you're both often and weak. Counts genuine green attempts only (club-can-reach test); "layup share" shows how much of that distance you already, sensibly, don't attempt.

The three range protocols (pass/fail, not vibes)

1Strike Separation Test — the gate. 20 balls alternating 7-iron / 8-iron at the range, measure each. PASS when the 7-iron's median is at least 8 yards past the 8-iron's, two sessions running. Right now they're inverted (132 vs 138) — until they separate, yardage decisions are guesses, so this comes before everything.
2Random Ladder, 125–175. Ten balls, never the same club twice in a row, full routine each, random targets in the zone. PASS: 6 of 10 finish pin-high ±10% of the shot's distance (distance error is what's scored, not proximity). Research says this random-order structure is what transfers to the course; block-hitting the same club doesn't.
3No-Second-Chip Game, 25–50y. Ten balls from varied lies; anywhere on the green scores a point, proximity irrelevant. PASS: 8 of 10. Kills the one-in-three re-chip by redefining "good" as on-the-surface.

One number per zone — your report card

Each updates with the year filter; targets are the next level up, not tour golf.

The bag report — usage & real distances

Every club: how often you hit it, and its true distance (median, middle 50% shaded). Toggle years above to watch the bag evolve.

Anatomy of the scores

Every hole, by strokes

Disaster holes decide the round

Driving

How this is measured: for each drive the GPS knows the tee, where the ball finished, and the green. We draw a straight tee→green "target line" and measure how many yards left or right of it the drive ended. So "left/right" means of that line, not in the rough — it's a scatter measure (doglegs can fool it on single holes; the pattern over dozens of drives is what counts). Actual fairways hit comes from the app's own stat. Dogleg check (Nick's): holes whose played path runs ≥18% longer than the straight line (32 of 161 classifiable) were excluded in a re-test — the scatter barely moved (35→37% within 20y), so the two-way miss is real, not a dogleg artifact.

Scoring trend

18-hole 9-hole (×2) 10-round avg

By course

The prescription

1Cap the disasters at 2 per round. After any tee ball in trouble, the next shot's only job is back in play.
2Extend the layup rule down to 175 yards. You already lay up well from 200+. Genuine attempts from 175–200 convert in the low-single-digits to ~10% (small sample, but every method agrees it's poor) while leaving you 30–35y out on the miss — position to 75–100 instead, where you convert ~45%.
3One more club on approaches, center of green. Short misses beat long nearly 2-to-1 (about 1.8:1).
4Driver only when the fairway is wide — two-way miss; 5-wood into position on tight holes.
5Practice the 25–50y pitch. At least a third need a do-over chip today.